VIETNAM'S EXPORTING PROJECTIONS FOR THE PERIOD 2000 - 2010

In the decade from 2001-2010, Vietnam is expected to develop trade cooperation with many foreign countries and financial, economics organizations. Vietnamese goods will be presented in the big countries and major economics centers. Resources such as: labor, land, and natural resources are plentiful and low cost. Physical conditions and infrastructure will be improved, providing favorable condition for economic development and accelerating export. In parallel, the ability to expand the export market to develop the economy while enforcing trade relationships, will present numerous difficulties and challenges:

 - At present, Vietnam is still a poor and under developed country. It is expected that in the 10 coming years, GDP will be doubled. The production structure is continuing to change progressively, but generally is still lagging behind other neighboring countries, affecting the size, structure and results of the import – export market

-The competitive ability of State and Private enterprises is low when facing the more furious competition in the world and Regional markets, especially from 2006 , when Vietnam will commit to AFTA. Importers/ Exporters and the country's strategy and policy markers are relatively inexperienced with and unknowledgeable of world trade practices and policies, regional and world economies, monetary-exchange rates, and competitive product pricing such as agricultural products and fuel.

I.  Objectives and Perspectives to Develop Exports.

Export activities in the 10 coming year have to meet the general objectives which will be approved by the IX Congress with the basic contents of boosting the growth rate of import- export, ensuring the need of domestic consumption, increasing industrialization and modernization, shifting the import-export structure to increased value added, increasing manufactured and processed products, applying new technology to improve quality of high technological products, and accelerating service exports. Importing equipment or raw materials for production should be given priority, especially, advanced technology. Other high priorities include ensuring a reasonable trade balance, expanding and diversifying the market and business methods, and effectively integrating into the regional and world economy. Taking opportunities to develop rapidly, shortening the gap between our economy and other regional countries.

To achieve the above-mentioned purposes, Vietnam will comply with the following guidelines:

Firstly, continue the policy of high priority of export growth, aiming at accelerating the GDP growth rate, developing production, attracting the labor force, and integrating into the regional and world economy while maintaining independence and the socialism orientation. Increase the shift of economic structure and administrative reform in order to complete the legal system, enhance efficiency and competition among enterprises as well as the economy.

Secondly, coordinate the domestic market with foreign markets, combining market with production, paying attention to the domestic market while widening and diversifying foreign markets at the same time

Thirdly, continue to diversify those economic sectors participating in exporting and importing activities in which state economy has the major role

II. Specific Objectives:

The size and the speed of exporting growth :

• According to the Drafted socio - economic development strategy and projections from 2001 to 2010, in the next 10 years the export growth will double the GDP growth rate, approximately 14.4 % per year. The processed agricultural products are expected to reach the turnover of USD 6-7 billion in 2010, the average food will be 4-5 billion tons / year, mineral turnover will be about USD 3 billion, and industrial products are accounting for 70-80% of total export turnover. However, according to the Ministry of Trade the achievement of the export growth rate of 14.4% per year will not be simple because:
  

• The starting level from 2001-2002 will be higher than period from 1991-2000 (113.5 billion as compared will USD 2.4 billion). With existing limitations in many fields, especially in terms of structural limitations. Increasing absolute value over USD 2 billion / year will be very difficult, requiring certain conditions and high efforts in import - export activities.
  
• If the growth rate of exports is 14.4 % per year and of GDP is 7.2% per year, export will be over 80% of GDP by the year 2010. This proportion is too high because Vietnam's economy in the next 10 years will have not been opened as Singapore or Hong Kong.
  
• In the last 10-year, the foreign invested capital enterprises have contributed a rather great part into the export growth rate , showing new products and exploiting new market. Since 1998, the foreign capital has invested into our country slowly and is decreasing. Now, we are wondering how to solve this situation. If this trend continues, it will effect the export growth rate, at least, the beginning of the period from 2001-2010.

Basing on the experiences of the past 10 years and the estimation of production and market in the next 10 years, the Ministry of Trade has proposed causes by unforeseen factors, particularly the new market, prices and the ability to rise or decrease different products, including:

Changing suddenly, broadening into more markets including the American market, integrating into WTO, and attracting more foreign investment capital in order to meet the following objectives:

• Average increase from 2001-2010 of 15% per year, in period 2001-2005 increase of 16% per year , from 2006-2010 increase of 14% per year.

An export turnover of USD 28.4 billion and USD 54.6 billion in 2010 ( 4 times that of 2000.)